The Bank of Japan's exchange traded fund purchases: a help or hindrance to market efficiency?

We examine the impact of the Bank of Japan's exchange traded fund (ETF) purchases on two aspects of market efficiency—long-range dependence and price delay—of the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 indices. An increase in ETF purchases results in lower long-range dependence for both indices while the impact on the price delay varies according to index and measure. A sub-period analysis shows that the impact on market efficiency varies over time, with the dominant pattern being a delayed harmful effect, followed by a positive impact and thereafter a negative effect. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Asymmetric information flow to G7 and Nordic equities markets during COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeThis paper investigates the probable differential impact of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the equities markets of G7 and Nordic countries to ascertain possible interdependencies, diversification and safe haven prospects in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic over the short-, intermediate- and long-term horizons.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply a unique methodology in a denoised frequency-domain entropy paradigm to the selected equities markets (Li et al. 2020).FindingsThe authors' findings reinforce the operability of the entrenched market dynamics in the COVID-19 pandemic era. The authors divulge that different approaches to fighting the pandemic do not necessarily drive a change in the deep-rooted fundamentals of the equities market, specifically for the studied markets. Except for an extreme case nearing the end (start) of the short-term (intermediate-term) between Iceland and either Denmark or the US equities, there exists no potential for diversification across the studied markets, which could be ascribed to the degree of integration between these markets.Practical implicationsThe authors' findings suggest that politicians should pay closer attention to stock market fluctuations as well as the count of confirmed COVID-19 cases in their respective countries since these could cause changes to market dynamics in the short-term through investor sentiments.Originality/valueThe authors measure the flow of information from COVID-19 to G7 and Nordic equities using the entropy methodology induced by the Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN), which is a data-driven technique. The authors employ a larger sample period as a result of this, which is required to better comprehend the subtleties of investor behaviour within and among economies - G7 and Nordic geographical blocs - which largely employed different approaches to fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors' focus is on diverging time horizons, and the ICEEMDAN-based entropy would enable us to measure the amount of information conveyed to account for large tails in these nations' equity returns. Furthermore, the authors use a unique type of entropy known as Renyi entropy, which uses suitable weights to discern tailed distributions. The Shannon entropy does not account for the fact that financial assets have fat tails. In a pandemic like COVID-19, these fat tails are very strong, and they must be accounted for.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and foreign stocks on the US market

PurposeThe authors investigate how market quality diverges between foreign firms and domestic firms on the US stock market in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Design/methodology/approachWith an event study approach, the authors compare foreign firms with domestic firms in their market responses over the three-day window around the outbreak of the war. Further, with Difference-in-Difference (DID) analyses, the authors study the change in foreign firms' market quality upon this outbreak in comparison with their domestic counterparts. Finally, the authors compare the foreign firms across firm specific characteristics and home country characteristics.FindingsThe authors find that foreign stocks listed in the US experience more severe market quality deterioration compared to the stocks' domestic counterparts. This effect is especially strong for companies from countries considered friendlier towards Russia and companies that are not cross-listed. The authors' findings are consistent with the information asymmetry hypothesis concerning market quality. Moreover, US market investors have more concerns over political risks with non-US-aligned political standings during war times.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors' findings are consistent with the information asymmetry hypothesis concerning market quality. Moreover, US market investors have more concerns over political risks over non-US-aligned political standings during war time.Practical implicationsSince both countries in the conflict are in Europe, the US stock market, to a certain degree, becomes a safe haven for capital from Europe and other countries. In the meantime, American Depository Receipts (ADRs) have been important for US investors to create a globally diversified portfolio, and the knowledge regarding ADRs' vulnerability to international geopolitical events is valuable. The author' results are informative for stock market investors to understand the market dynamics for international and domestic companies during this extremely uncertain time.Originality/valueThis is the first study that examines the market quality divergence between foreign firms and domestic firms on the US stock market in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The authors provide novel evidence on the change in ADRs' market quality associated with significant political uncertainty. The authors show that ADRs' market quality is more vulnerable to international geopolitical risks relative to otherwise comparable domestic firms.

Stock market integration and volatility spillovers: new evidence from Asia-Pacific and European markets

PurposeThis work investigates the volatility spillovers across stock markets and the nature of such spillovers through different periods of crises and tranquility.Design/methodology/approachUsing daily stock return volatility data from June 2003 to June 2021, the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method (based on Diebold and Yilmaz, 2012 approach) is employed to measure the degree of volatility spillovers/connectedness among stock markets of 24 Asia-Pacific and 12 European Union (EU) economies.FindingsThe empirical results from static analysis suggested that about 28.1% (63.7%) of forecast error variance in return volatility for Asia-Pacific (EU) markets is due to spillovers. The evidence from dynamic analysis suggested that during mid of the global financial crisis, European debt crisis (EDC) and Covid-19, the gross volatility spillovers for Asia-Pacific (EU) was around 67% (80%), 65% (80%) and 73% (67%), respectively. The degree of net volatility transmission from Singapore (Denmark) to other Asia-Pacific (EU) markets was found to be highest.Practical implicationsThe findings have crucial implications for the investors and portfolio managers in assessment of risk and optimum allocation of assets and investment decisions.Originality/valueThis study adds to the literature on risk management by systematically examining the impact of global financial crises, EDC and Covid-19 on the market interactions by capturing the magnitude, duration and pattern of the shock-specific market volatilities for a large sample of Asian and European markets using recent and large data set.

Are CLO Collateral and Tranche Ratings Disconnected?

Between March and August 2020, S & P and Moody's downgraded approximately 25$\%$ of collateral feeding into CLOs and only 2$\%$ of tranche values, with rating actions concentrating in junior tranches. Both S & P and Moody's modeling indicate that the impacts should have been considerably larger, especially for higher-rated tranches. Neither changes in correlation nor the accumulation of pre-COVID-19 protective cushions can explain the downgrade asymmetry on upper tranches. Instead, CLO managers repositioned their collateral pools to dampen the negative credit shock and rating agencies incorporated qualitative adjustments in their CLO ratings. Important potential policy and market implications from these findings are discussed.

The changing investor demographics of an emerging IPO market during the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose The last two years are characterized by record numbers of initial public offerings (IPOs), foreign investor abstinence and rising retail investor appetite in the Turkish stock market. This study aims to investigate whether retail investor dominance coupled with foreign investor aversion has significant impact on initial and short-term returns. Design/methodology/approach The research covers the population of 188 companies going public at Borsa Istanbul from 2010 to the end of 2021. Three hypotheses are developed and tested by means of ordinary least squares and Tobit regressions to examine the association between investor allocations and returns. A new measure for retail investor trade size, average retail investment per capita (ARI) is utilized to explain the linkage between retail investor appetite and short-term returns. Two-stage least squares and Heckman selection regressions are employed for robustness tests to address potential endogeneity. Findings Pandemic IPOs provide significantly larger short-term returns than pre-pandemic IPOs measured up to one month. Underpricing during the pandemic is not significantly greater due to 10% daily price limit, which leads to a gradual release of retail investor appetite and increase in stock prices in the short term. Retail investors control 66% of the market during the pandemic compared to 35% before, while foreign institutional investor market share declines from 53% to 6%. Average retail investor number in an offering increases by 55.4-fold during the pandemic, resulting in substantially smaller allocations to the average individual investor. Greater returns during the pandemic are associated with smaller retail investment per capita, while domestic institutional investment is associated with lower returns as typically expected from institutional investors, although its significance disappears after controlling for potential endogeneity. Research limitations/implications This study investigates returns up to one month. To better understand whether short-termism of retail investors and recent foreign investor aversion have detrimental effect on companies, and on the market as a whole, longer-term studies are needed. This is not possible at the current stage since not enough time has passed. Practical implications This research is relevant to emerging market investors and companies due to the ongoing foreign investor aversion and fast-changing market conditions. The research cautions market participants against the short-termism of retail investors and urges policymakers to regain investors with longer investment horizons. Social implications Many newcomer retail investors are in the stock market due to lack of more profitable alternatives in Turkey. Although their participation is accompanied by larger short-term returns for the time being, the current momentum is unlikely to last long as the pandemic ends, and interest rates around the world begin to be raised. The study urges small investors to invest in a more informed manner and aim for longer time horizons, as it may not be possible to make a quick profit in the stock markets in the near future. Originality/value This is the first study to investigate changing investor profile in emerging markets and its impact on returns following pandemic declaration. The question is important because the investor composition affects the investment horizon in the market.

The MAX puzzle in a frontier market before and during the Covid-19 pandemic

This study analyses the MAX anomaly in a frontier market before and during the Covid19 pandemic. Our sample has 39,673 firm-month observations of non-financial firms in Vietnam from 2008 to 2021. Using the Carhart four-factor model augmented with MAX anomaly, Fama-Macbeth two-step estimations, and portfolio analyses, we report the persistence of the MAX puzzle in Vietnam before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The arbitrary returns between the highest and lowest MAX portfolios are around 1% per month. Finally, our results report that the MAX anomaly is subsumed by the IVOL anomaly, while the skewness fails to explain the MAX anomaly. Our findings align with the anchoring theory, prospect theory, and prior literature. Our findings align with the anchoring theory, prospect theory, and prior literature. Our study suggests that policymakers improve market transparency to protect retail investors. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Investment Analysts Journal is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

VIX and major agricultural future markets: dynamic linkage and time-frequency relations around the COVID-19 outbreak

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility spillover and lead-lag relationship between the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) and the major agricultural future markets before and during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Design/methodology/approach The methods used were the vector autoregression-Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity method, the Wald test and wavelet transform method. Findings The findings indicate that prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, there was a two-way volatility spillover impact between the majority of the sample markets. In comparison, volatility transmission between the VIX index and the agricultural future market was significantly lower following the COVID-19 outbreak, the authors observed greater coherence at higher frequencies than at lower frequencies, implying that the interdependence between the two VIX indices and the agricultural future market was stronger over a longer time-frequency domain and the VIX's signalling effect on various agricultural future prices after the COVID-19 outbreak was significantly lower. Originality/value The authors conducted the first comprehensive investigation of the VIX's correlation with major agricultural futures, especially during COVID-19. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the risk transmission mechanism between the VIX and major agricultural commodities futures contracts. And our findings have significant implications for investors and portfolio managers, as well as for policymakers who are concerned about the price of agricultural futures.

Investor attention and reaction in COVID-19 crisis: sentiment analysis in the Indian stock market

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the influence of attention and sentiment in the Indian stock market during the unusual COVID-19 crisis in the first and second waves of the pandemic. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is used to estimate the expected return. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with optimal lag value selection and Granger causality using the vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation model were applied to find out whether there is a causal relationship between investors' attention and sentiment that influence stock returns across 14 sectors. Findings The results show that increased attention to COVID-19 substantially varied in the first wave and second wave market reactions. The upsurge attention of COVID-19 shows a negative influence with lower expected returns in the second wave. The sentiment of investors contrasts from the lower expected return in the first wave to the higher expected return in the second wave of the pandemic. Moreover, investors' sentiment in a state of fear is associated with lower returns. Originality/value The authors capture sentiment based on attention and investors mood using novel data set during the COVID-19 pandemic shock. The study is among a few which take a comprehensive stock market response during initial and subsequent waves across sector returns.

Islamic equity funds and stock market: dynamic relation and market timing during the COVID-19 outbreak

Purpose This paper aims to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the market timing skills of Islamic equity funds in Asia, Europe and North America. Design/methodology/approach The authors employed a two-step process. First, a Granger causality test is applied to test the bivariate relationship between Islamic fund indices and stock market ones by highlighting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the methodology of Treynor and Mazuy (1966) is deployed to account for the market timing abilities skills of Islamic fund managers during the pandemic period. Findings The investigation revealed mixed results. The European Islamic funds were positively impacted by the stock market as well as by the COVID-19 pandemic context. Additionally, compared to their Asian and North American peers, only European Islamic fund managers have the ability to time the market during the health crisis period. Research limitations/implications Despite its contribution to the Islamic finance literature, this study has some flaws. Indeed, the selected sample of three regions, namely Asia, Europe and North America, precludes extrapolating these conclusions. Other regions should be investigated to further our understanding of Islamic equity funds. Furthermore, due to data availability and accessibility, the study period was limited to a specific time of the COVID-19 pandemic. This shortcoming can be addressed through a multiwave investigation, especially since each region was exposed differently to the pandemic. Practical implications The paper provides scholars, portfolio managers and investors with insights regarding the investment dilemma during the COVID-19 pandemic period, especially for those wishing to hedge their pandemic risk exposure and/or diversify their portfolios. Equally, the depiction of potential market timing abilities of Islamic fund managers across the three regions would serve as a guide to identifying the most suitable internationally focused investment strategy. Social implications The paper provides scholars, portfolio managers and investors with insights regarding the investment dilemma during the COVID-19 pandemic period, especially for those wishing to hedge their pandemic risk exposure and/or diversify their portfolios. Equally, the depiction of potential market timing abilities of Islamic funds managers across the three regions would serve as a guide to identify the most suitable internationally focused investment strategy. Originality/value The originality of this investigation is that it is the first to examine Islamic equity fund managers and their skills to time the stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic period in Asia, Europe and North America. The current paper extends the Islamic finance literature.

Stock market reactions of Malaysian firms and industries towards events surrounding COVID-19 announcements and number of confirmed cases

Purpose This paper aims to examine the stock market reactions of firms and industries in Malaysia to the government's COVID-19 movement control order (MCO) announcement. As China is Malaysia's leading trading partner, the authors also observe if the Chinese Government's confirmation of human-to-human coronavirus transmission affects firms' stock market reactions. In addition, this study examines whether the Malaysian Government's ease of restrictions on economic activities affects firms' stock market reactions. Finally, this study analyses the effect of COVID-19 number of confirmed cases on firms' abnormal returns. Design/methodology/approach This study uses an event study methodology to determine the abnormal returns between day -30 to day 30 of the announcements. In addition, this study uses the regression estimation to determine whether the COVID-19 number of confirmed cases explain the abnormal returns. Findings This study finds that investors react negatively to the announcement of the MCO and confirmation of the human-to-human transmission of coronavirus over the event windows. However, the cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) started to recover when stimulus packages were introduced, and the lockdown measures were eased, allowing businesses to reopen. This study also finds that only firms in the health-care sector reported significant positive CAARs. Stock returns of the utilities and telecommunication firms showed no changes, while eight other sectors fell remarkably. The results also show that the COVID-19 number of confirmed cases adversely affects firms' abnormal returns. Practical implications This study suggests that stock prices incorporate bad and good news surrounding the announcements of major international and local events related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, investors should consider such factors in making investment decisions. Originality/value To the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is one of the early research works investigating the stock market reactions to the COVID-19 major announcements (MCO, human-to-human transmission and ease of restrictions on economic activities) using an event study methodology in an emerging market, namely, Malaysia. This study is timely in light of the recently increasing calls for researchers to analyse the potential economic impacts of COVID-19 on global capital markets, especially in emerging markets whose evidence is scarce.

Are ESG indexes a safe-haven or hedging asset? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in China

Purpose The aim of the paper is to investigate the risk-hedging and/or safe haven properties of environmental, social and governance (ESG) index during the COVID-19 in China. Design/methodology/approach This paper employs the DCC, VCC, CCC as well as Newey-West estimator regression. Findings The findings provide empirical evidence of the risk hedging properties of ESG indexes as well as of the environmental, social and governance thematic indexes during the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis. The results also support the superior risk hedging properties of ESG indexes over cryptocurrency. However, the authors do not find any safe haven properties of ESG, Bitcoin, gold and West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Practical implications The paper offers therefore, practical policy implications for asset managers, central bankers and investors suggesting the pandemic risk-hedging opportunities of ESG investments. Originality/value The study represents one of the first empirical contributions examining safe-haven and hedging properties of ESG indexes compared to traditional and innovative safe haven assets, during the eruption of the COVID-19 crisis.

COVID-19 Disclosures and Market Uncertainty: Evidence from 10-Q Filings

We examine whether the quarterly filing COVID-19 disclosures reduce uncertainty for investors and analysts. We find a negative relationship between COVID-19 disclosure and return volatility, suggesting COVID-19 disclosure reduces investor uncertainty. This reduction effect concentrates mainly during the short window following 10-Q releases and phases out over time. We then detect that industry-wide COVID-19 disclosure dispersion is positively associated with return volatility, suggesting high variation of industry-wide COVID-19 disclosures reduces information comparability across firms, resulting in increased investor uncertainty. Moreover, we find that COVID-19 disclosures are positively associated with analysts? downward earnings forecast revisions and negatively associated with analyst forecast dispersion after 10-Q releases, suggesting the disclosures reduce information risk even for sophisticated market participants. Further analyses show that COVID-19 disclosures are negatively associated with future financial and operational performances (i.e., sales, operating cash flow, operating income and ROA). Lastly, we find that the low readability of COVID-19 disclosure attenuates the negative relation between COVID-19 disclosure and market volatility. Collectively, our findings suggest that 10-Q COVID-19 disclosures contain value-relevant information that temporarily assists market participants in evaluating the changes in firms? values in the time of a crisis.

Extreme dependence and risk spillover across G7 and China stock markets before and during the COVID-19 period

Purpose The paper analyzes downside and upside risk spillovers between stock markets of G7 countries and China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach By using VAR-ADCC models and conditional value at risk (CoVaR) techniques, downside and upside risk spillovers between stock markets of G7 countries and China are analyzed before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings The results suggested existence of a significant and asymmetrical two-way risk transmission between majority of pair markets, but the degree of asymmetry differs according to the use of the entire cumulative distributions or distribution tails. Downside and upside risk spillovers are significantly larger before the COVID-19 pandemic in all cases except between CAC 40/DAX and S&P/SSE pairs. Originality/value The paper used CoVaR and delta-CoVaR to investigate the downside and upside spillovers between stock markets of G7 countries and China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Multifractality during upside/downside trends in the MENA stock markets: the effects of the global financial crisis, oil crash and COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose This paper examines asymmetric multifractality (A-MF) in the leading Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets under different turbulent periods (global financial crisis [GFC] and European sovereign debt crisis [ESDC], oil price crash and COVID-19 pandemic). Design/methodology/approach This study applies the asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) method of Cao et al. (2013) to identify A-MF and MENA stock market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings The results show strong evidence of different patterns of MF during upward and downward trends. Inefficiency is higher during upward trends than during downward trends in most of the stock markets in the whole sample period, and the opposite is true during financial crises. The Turkish stock market is the least inefficient during upward and downward trends. A-MF intensifies with an increase in scales. The evolution of excessive A-MF for MENA stock returns is heterogeneous. Most of the stock markets are more inefficient during a pandemic crisis than during an oil crash and other financial crises. However, the inefficiency of the Saudi Arabia and Qatar stock markets is highly sensitive to oil price crashes. Overall, the level of inefficiency varies across market trends, scales and stock markets and over time. The findings of this study provide investors and policymakers with valuable insights into efficient investment strategies, risk management and financial stability. Originality/value This paper first explores A-MF in the MENA emerging stock markets. The A-MF analysis provides useful information to investors regarding asset allocation, portfolio risk management and investment strategies during bullish and bearish market states. In addition, this paper examines A-MF under different turbulent periods, such as the GFC, the ESDC, the 2014-2016 oil crash and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The gold-stock market relationship during COVID-19.

The belief that investors shift to gold during times of economic stress, resulting in a negative correlation between gold returns and stock returns, is not supported in both the 2007-09 financial crisis and during COVID-19. However, the gold-stock market relationship is positive in periods of negative real rates of return. The evidence points to gold as a safe haven in times of stock market volatility and negative interest rates.

Flight-to-quality between global stock and bond markets in the COVID era.

We investigate the impact of the recent COVID-19 pandemic on the time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns. Using daily data on bond and stock returns for ten countries, covering Europe, Asia, US and Australia regions, we identify flight-to-quality episodes during the COVID-19 global pandemic crisis employing both a panel data specification and a wavelet analysis. Our empirical results demonstrate that flights occur simultaneously across countries and are not country-specific events. This finding suggests that the two largest asset classes offered diversification to investors during the recent crisis, when they actually needed it the most.